12/18/2023 0 Comments Project drawdown food waste![]() ![]() Integrationįor integration, we first considered the reduction of organic waste from our Reduced Food Waste solution (which already incorporated consideration of Plant-Rich Diets adoption) and the increase in organic waste from an assumed compostable percentage of the increased adoption of the Bioplastics solution, to refactor the market for composting for each year. We generated the data used for modeling both composting and landfilling from a mix of values, including worldwide averages reported by World Bank’s “What a Waste” and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). However, operating compost facilities costs more than operating landfills, even considering the revenue generated from the sale of finished compost. We calculated the cost of establishing new compost facilities over the period to be US$110 billion, which is US$61 billion less than the cost of establishing new landfills. We assumed collection and transportation costs to be the same for each approach. We reached financial results by comparing the costs of creating and operating compost facilities with those of creating and operating sanitary landfills for an equivalent volume of organic waste. Sources include the EPA WARM model, the Composting Council of Canada, and meta-analyses such as those by Zaman et al. We normalized the variables to total direct emissions per million metric tons of organic waste because a variety of sources reported complete emissions and some segmented emissions data by collection, transportation, processing, and other indirect measures. We calculated emissions data for each scenario using variables selected from sources that measured the comparative emissions of composting and/or landfilling. Scenario 2: Composting increases to 312.34 million metric tons (20 percent of the total addressable market).Scenario 1: Composting increases to 442.49 million metric tons of organic waste (29 percent of the total addressable market).We calculated impacts of increased adoption of composting from 2020 to 2050 by comparing two growth scenarios with the reference scenario. Adoption could be increased by optimizing composting scale and costs, increasing the market value of compost, and subsidizing source-separated collection, perhaps through increased regulation and cost burden on landfill practices. Due to the lack of reliable future projections of the growth of composting, we estimated adoption based on 2000–2017 urban composting rates in the US and EU-approximately 38 percent and 57 percent, respectively-with negligible rates in lower- and middle-income countries. Global compost production in 2015 was 106 million metric tons. We estimated 13 percent of urban organic waste was composted in 2014. We expect that total global organic waste by 2050 will be around 1,979 million metric tons. We calculated the global market using a composite of forecasts, including a linear interpolation of World Bank data from 2010 to 2025, an extrapolation to extend those projections to 2050, and a per capita extrapolation using IPCC data and the UN’s 2015 median urban population forecast. We based the total addressable market for organic waste on global urban organic waste production from 2014 to 2050. Next, we determined the current composting rate of existing municipal solid waste facilities, forecasted the future plausible adoption of composting to 2050, and calculated emissions mitigated relative to a reference scenario that keeps adoption of composting fixed at the current percentage of global organic waste. To quantify the benefits of composting, we first forecast total global urban organic waste production from 2014 to 2050. The practice has other benefits as well, including potential carbon biosequestration benefits from the use of compost as a soil amendment and potential savings from reducing demand for nitrogen fertilizers. This solution replaces the disposal of biodegradable urban organic waste in landfills. Composting-the conversion of such waste into a useful soil amendment-reduces those emissions by more than 50 percent. For every million metric tons of organic wastes that decompose, 469 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases in the form of methane are released.
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